A Strategic Briefing in the Context of South Africa’s Rubicon Moment

The 2026 National Budget Speech was presented as one of the most consequential fiscal events in a generation. While the 2025 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement had provided relative stability, the Minister of Finance faced a volatile environment characterized by geopolitical risk, uncertain trade dynamics, and pressure on fiscal discipline.

The Role of the Advisor

The briefing emphasized that clients were no longer merely asking about tax changes, but were seeking guidance on future actions. The session was designed to equip practitioners with the technical clarity and strategic context needed to provide commercially credible, forward-looking advice.

Key Discussion Pillars

• Tax Analysis of Budget Amendments: Prof Jackie Arendse unpacked the tax proposals, highlighting implications for compliance and advisory engagements.
• Strategic Business Advisory: Dr. Frans Cronje positioned South Africa at a "Rubicon Moment" where decisions regarding trade relations (such as AGOA) and the stability of the Government of National Unity (GNU) would determine the country's trajectory.

Future Scenarios by 2030

The presentation explored four distinct scenarios, each carrying specific consequences for practitioners and clients:

1. Rise of the Rainbow: This outcome involved pro-growth reforms and stable trade relations, leading to an estimated 4–5% GDP growth and renewed investment.
2. The Break-up: This scenario was defined by reform failure and a shrinking tax base, necessitating defensive, "fortress-style" tax planning.
3. Rise of the Right: This featured a strong state with pragmatic economic policy, resulting in infrastructure expansion but increased regulatory scrutiny.
4. Tyranny of the Left: Following a GNU collapse, this path led to populist policies, including wealth taxes and accelerated capital flight.

Presenters

Professor Jackie Arendse

 B Acc (Wits) M Acc (Tax) (UKZN) Chartered Accountant (SA) PhD (Accounting) (Rhodes)

After completing her training at Deloitte and qualifying as a Chartered Accountant, Jackie was Group Financial Accountant for a top-100 listed company before moving to academia where she developed her skills as an academic – authoring, lecturing, and researching on a wide range of tax areas – and also completing her master’s and PhD qualifications.

She served as Project Director: Tax at the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants (SAICA) between 2004 and 2006, managing relationships with key stakeholders (especially SARS and National Treasury), enhancing SAICA members’ tax competence and representing SAICA in discussions with government on tax policy and legislation.

Jackie was Head of the School of Accountancy at Wits University from 2009 until 2013 and was Head of the Department of Accounting at Rhodes University from 2014 until 2020. Since 2021, she has been Head of Taxation at Academic One, which is developing a fully online CTA/Accounting Honours programme, and she continues as a sought-after presenter of tax seminars and webinars.

Jackie has presented tax training to tax practitioners, accountants, small businesses, and large corporates around the country for many years and has authored numerous books, articles, and publications in the field of taxation including Silke on South African Income Tax. She is the managing author of Silke on Tax Administration, published by LexisNexis and updated annually.

Dr Frans Cronje

Frans is an independent political and economic analyst and runs the advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients. He has over 20 years of experience counseling clients, from Fortune 500 companies to banks and financial institutions, and some of the world's most influential governments, on global and South African economic and political developments. He has a PhD in scenario planning and has written three books on the future of the world and South Africa. He is chairman of South Africa’s Social Research Foundation, the Yorktown Foundation for Freedom in Washington DC, and the BRE-DE-RE policy group in Germany.

CPD

Attending this webinar and the successful completion of the online assessment will secure a certificate of completion for 3 hours of Tax CPD.

Event Investment

Free for Tax Technician, Tax Practitioner, Tax Accountant CPD subscribers and Practice Packages. Not a CPD subscriber yet? Click here to register now.

• Regular price:  R460.00
• Group booking discounts available when you register for a group.

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