A Strategic Briefing in the Context of South Africa’s Rubicon Moment

The 2026 National Budget Speech is shaping up to be one of the most consequential fiscal events in a generation. While the 2025 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement provided relative stability, the Minister of Finance now faces a far more volatile environment—marked by heightened geopolitical risk, uncertain US trade dynamics, increasing pressure on fiscal discipline, and the ongoing fragility of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Why This Post-Budget Briefing Matters

Your clients are no longer asking only “What changed in tax?”—they are increasingly asking “What should we do next?”

This post-budget commentary is designed to equip tax practitioners with the technical clarity and strategic context needed to translate the 2026 Budget into commercially credible, forward-looking advice grounded in scenario-based thinking.

Key Topics

1. Tax Analysis of the 2026 Budget Amendments

Presenter: Prof Jackie Arendse

Prof Arendse will unpack the tax proposals announced in the Budget Speech, highlighting key amendments and their implications for compliance, planning, and advisory engagements. The focus will be on practical takeaways that practitioners can immediately apply in client conversations.

2. Strategic Business Advisory Briefing: South Africa’s Rubicon Moment

Presenter: Dr Frans Cronje

Dr Cronje positions South Africa as having reached a critical “Rubicon Moment,” where decisions around US trade relations (including AGOA), fiscal discipline, and the stability of the GNU will determine the country’s trajectory toward one of four possible scenarios by 2030—each with direct consequences for tax practitioners and their clients:

• Scenario 1: Rise of the Rainbow
  Outcome: Pro-growth reforms, stable GNU, improved trade relations
  Client impact: 4–5% GDP growth, shift toward growth-based incentives, renewed investment inflows

• Scenario 2: The Break-up
  Outcome: Reform failure and continued erosion of state capacity
  Client impact: Shrinking tax base, enclave economies, defensive and “fortress-style” tax planning

• Scenario 3: Rise of the Right
  Outcome: Strong state with pragmatic, growth-focused economic policy
  Client impact: Authoritarian capitalism, infrastructure expansion, increased regulatory scrutiny

• Scenario 4: Tyranny of the Left
  Outcome: GNU collapse and populist policy shift
  Client impact: Wealth taxes, land expropriation, weakened property rights, accelerated capital flight

Presenters

Professor Jackie Arendse

 B Acc (Wits) M Acc (Tax) (UKZN) Chartered Accountant (SA) PhD (Accounting) (Rhodes)

After completing her training at Deloitte and qualifying as a Chartered Accountant, Jackie was Group Financial Accountant for a top-100 listed company before moving to academia where she developed her skills as an academic – authoring, lecturing, and researching on a wide range of tax areas – and also completing her master’s and PhD qualifications.

She served as Project Director: Tax at the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants (SAICA) between 2004 and 2006, managing relationships with key stakeholders (especially SARS and National Treasury), enhancing SAICA members’ tax competence and representing SAICA in discussions with government on tax policy and legislation.

Jackie was Head of the School of Accountancy at Wits University from 2009 until 2013 and was Head of the Department of Accounting at Rhodes University from 2014 until 2020. Since 2021, she has been Head of Taxation at Academic One, which is developing a fully online CTA/Accounting Honours programme, and she continues as a sought-after presenter of tax seminars and webinars.

Jackie has presented tax training to tax practitioners, accountants, small businesses, and large corporates around the country for many years and has authored numerous books, articles, and publications in the field of taxation including Silke on South African Income Tax. She is the managing author of Silke on Tax Administration, published by LexisNexis and updated annually.

Dr Frans Cronje

Frans is an independent political and economic analyst and runs the advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients. He has over 20 years of experience counseling clients, from Fortune 500 companies to banks and financial institutions, and some of the world's most influential governments, on global and South African economic and political developments. He has a PhD in scenario planning and has written three books on the future of the world and South Africa. He is chairman of South Africa’s Social Research Foundation, the Yorktown Foundation for Freedom in Washington DC, and the BRE-DE-RE policy group in Germany.

CPD

Attending this webinar and the successful completion of the online assessment will secure a certificate of completion for 3 hours of Tax CPD.

Event Investment

Free for Tax Technician, Tax Practitioner, Tax Accountant CPD subscribers and Practice Packages. Not a CPD subscriber yet? Click here to register now.

• Regular price:  R460.00
• Group booking discounts available when you register for a group.

Payments and Cancellations

• All payments must be made by EFT or by credit card, at least three working days before commencement of an event.
• Kindly note that should payment not be received two days after the event, legal action will be taken.
• Proof of payment will be requested at registration if payment does not reflect in The Tax Faculty’s bank account.
• Only written notice of cancellation will be recognized.
• Conditions:
  • If the cancellation occurs more than four working days prior to the event no cancellation fee will be charged.
  • If the cancellation occurs less than four working days prior to the event, a 100% cancellation fee will apply.
• Delegates who book and fail to attend will be liable for the full event fee.
• The Tax Faculty’s liability in the case of an event being cancelled will be limited to a refund or credit of the event fee.
• Please click here for the full terms and conditions.